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The ability to predict student performance in introductory programming courses is important to help struggling students and enhance their persistence. However, for this prediction to be impactful, it is crucial that it remains transparent and accessible for both instructors and students, ensuring effective utilization of the predicted results. Machine learning models with explainable features provide an effective means for students and instructors to comprehend students' diverse programming behaviors and problem-solving strategies, elucidating the factors contributing to both successful and suboptimal performance. This study develops an explainable model that predicts student performance based on programming assignment submission information in different stages of the course to enable early explainable predictions. We extract data-driven features from student programming submissions and utilize a stacked ensemble model for predicting final exam grades. The experimental results suggest that our model successfully predicts student performance based on their programming submissions earlier in the semester. Employing SHAP, a game-theory-based framework, we explain the model's predictions, aiding stakeholders in understanding the influence of diverse programming behaviors on students' success. Additionally, we analyze crucial features, employing a mix of descriptive statistics and mixture models to identify distinct student profiles based on their problem-solving patterns, enhancing overall explainability. Furthermore, we dive deeper and analyze the profiles using different programming patterns of the students to elucidate the characteristics of different students where SHAP explanations are not comprehensible. Our explainable early prediction model elucidates common problem-solving patterns in students relative to their expertise, facilitating effective intervention and adaptive support. 

Social interactions among classroom peers, represented as social learning networks (SLNs), play a crucial role in enhancing learning outcomes. While SLN analysis has recently garnered attention, most existing approaches rely on centralized training, where data is aggregated and processed on a local/cloud server with direct access to raw data. However, in real-world educational settings, such direct access across multiple classrooms is often restricted due to privacy concerns. Furthermore, training models on isolated classroom data prevents the identification of common interaction patterns that exist across multiple classrooms, thereby limiting model performance. To address these challenges, we propose one of the first frameworks that integrates Federated Learning (FL), a distributed and collaborative machine learning (ML) paradigm, with SLNs derived from students' interactions in multiple classrooms' online forums to predict future link formations (i.e., interactions) among students. By leveraging FL, our approach enables collaborative model training across multiple classrooms while preserving data privacy, as it eliminates the need for raw data centralization. Recognizing that each classroom may exhibit unique student interaction dynamics, we further employ model personalization techniques to adapt the FL model to individual classroom characteristics. Our results demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in capturing both shared and classroom-specific representations of student interactions in SLNs. Additionally, we utilize explainable AI (XAI) techniques to interpret model predictions, identifying key factors that influence link formation across different classrooms. These insights unveil the drivers of social learning interactions within a privacy-preserving, collaborative, and distributed ML framework—an aspect that has not been explored before. 

The ability to predict student performance in introductory programming courses is important to help struggling students and enhance their persistence. However, for this prediction to be impactful, it is crucial that it remains transparent and accessible for both instructors and students, ensuring effective utilization of the predicted results. Machine learning models with explainable features provide an effective means for students and instructors to comprehend students' diverse programming behaviors and problem-solving strategies, elucidating the factors contributing to both successful and suboptimal performance. This study develops an explainable model that predicts student performance based on programming assignment submission information in different stages of the course to enable early explainable predictions. We extract data-driven features from student programming submissions and utilize a stacked ensemble model for predicting final exam grades. The experimental results suggest that our model successfully predicts student performance based on their programming submissions earlier in the semester. Employing SHAP, a game-theory-based framework, we explain the model's predictions, aiding stakeholders in understanding the influence of diverse programming behaviors on students' success. Additionally, we analyze crucial features, employing a mix of descriptive statistics and mixture models to identify distinct student profiles based on their problem-solving patterns, enhancing overall explainability. Furthermore, we dive deeper and analyze the profiles using different programming patterns of the students to elucidate the characteristics of different students where SHAP explanations are not comprehensible. Our explainable early prediction model elucidates common problem-solving patterns in students relative to their expertise, facilitating effective intervention and adaptive support. 

programming concepts in programming assignments in a CS1 course. We seek to answer the following research questions: RQ1. How effectively can large language models identify knowledge components in a CS1 course from programming assignments? RQ2. Can large language models be used to extract program-level knowledge components, and how can the information be used to identify students’ misconceptions? Preliminary results demonstrated a high similarity between course-level knowledge components retrieved from a large language model and that of an expert-generated list. 

Identifying misconceptions in student programming solutions is an important step in evaluating their comprehension of fundamental programming concepts. While misconceptions are latent constructs that are hard to evaluate directly from student programs, logical errors can signal their existence in students’ understanding. Tracing multiple occurrences of related logical bugs over different problems can provide strong evidence of students’ misconceptions. This study presents preliminary results of utilizing an interpretable state-ofthe- art Abstract Syntax Tree-based embedding neural network to identify logical mistakes in student code. In this study, we show a proof-of-concept of the errors identified in student programs by classifying correct versus incorrect programs. Our preliminary results show that our framework is able to automatically identify misconceptions without designing and applying a detailed rubric. This approach shows promise for improving the quality of instruction in introductory programming courses by providing educators with a powerful tool that offers personalized feedback while enabling accurate modeling of student misconceptions. 

Automated analysis of programming data using code representation methods offers valuable services for programmers, from code completion to clone detection to bug detection. Recent studies show the effectiveness of Abstract Syntax Trees (AST), pre-trained Transformer-based models, and graph-based embeddings in programming code representation. However, pre-trained large language models lack interpretability, while other embedding-based approaches struggle with extracting important information from large ASTs. This study proposes a novel Subtree-based Attention Neural Network (SANN) to address these gaps by integrating different components: an optimized sequential subtree extraction process using Genetic algorithm optimization, a two-way embedding approach, and an attention network. We investigate the effectiveness of SANN by applying it to two different tasks: program correctness prediction and algorithm detection on two educational datasets containing both small and large-scale code snippets written in Java and C, respectively. The experimental results show SANN's competitive performance against baseline models from the literature, including code2vec, ASTNN, TBCNN, CodeBERT, GPT-2, and MVG, regarding accurate predictive power. Finally, a case study is presented to show the interpretability of our model prediction and its application for an important human-centered computing application, student modeling. Our results indicate the effectiveness of the SANN model in capturing important syntactic and semantic information from students' code, allowing the construction of accurate student models, which serve as the foundation for generating adaptive instructional support such as individualized hints and feedback. 

Prediction of student performance in Introductory programming courses can assist struggling students and improve their persistence. On the other hand, it is important for the prediction to be transparent for the instructor and students to effectively utilize the results of this prediction. Explainable Machine Learning models can effectively help students and instructors gain insights into students’ different programming behaviors and problem-solving strategies that can lead to good or poor performance. This study develops an explainable model that predicts students’ performance based on programming assignment submission information. We extract different data-driven features from students’ programming submissions and employ a stacked ensemble model to predict students’ final exam grades. We use SHAP, a game-theory-based framework, to explain the model’s predictions to help the stakeholders understand the impact of different programming behaviors on students’ success. Moreover, we analyze the impact of important features and utilize a combination of descriptive statistics and mixture models to identify different profiles of students based on their problem-solving patterns to bolster explainability. The experimental results suggest that our model significantly outperforms other Machine Learning models, including KNN, SVM, XGBoost, Bagging, Boosting, and Linear regression. Our explainable and transparent model can help explain students’ common problem-solving patterns in relationship with their level of expertise resulting in effective intervention and adaptive support to students.